In 2026 the Belastingdienst taxes a fictional 6.00% return on your investments whether you earned it or not. From 2028 you pay 36% on what you actually made: including paper gains. Same portfolio, very different bills.
Adjust the variables below to simulate outcomes, compare rates, and see real-time projections.
A direct comparison of features, rules, limits, and eligibility requirements.
| Feature / Detail | Box 3 2026 (Deemed Return) | Box 3 2028 (Actual Return) |
|---|---|---|
Tax rate | 36% on a fictional return | 36% on your real return |
Deemed rates 2026 | Savings 1.28%, investments 6.00%, debts −2.70% | None: actual interest, dividends and value changes count |
Tax-free allowance | €59,357 of wealth (€118,714 with partner) | €1,800 of return (€3,600 with partner) |
A year with losses | Deemed tax is still calculated: you must invoke the rebuttal scheme (tegenbewijsregeling) and prove your real return to get it to €0 | €0 automatically, and losses can offset future years |
Paper gains before you sell | Never taxed above the 6.00% forfait | Taxed every year for liquid assets (vermogensaanwasbelasting) |
Debt interest | Only a −2.70% deemed rate, even if you pay 5% interest | Actual interest paid is fully deductible |
Administration | Declare your 1 January balances, done | Track every dividend, trade and year-end valuation; costs like broker fees are not deductible |
Legal status | Patched interim system after the Hoge Raad struck down deemed returns (Kerstarrest 2021, confirmed June 2024) | Passed the Tweede Kamer on 12 February 2026; planned start 1 January 2028 |
Analyze the advantages and drawbacks of each financial product before making a decision.
Take Jeroen, 41, with €100,000 in savings earning 1.5%, €150,000 in ETFs that returned 6% this year, and a €10,000 investment loan at 4%. Under the 2026 rules the Belastingdienst ignores all of that and applies its own numbers: 1.28% on his savings (€1,280), 6.00% on his investments (€9,000), minus 2.70% on his debt (−€270). Deemed return: €10,010. After the wealth exemption of €59,357 his taxable share works out to roughly €7,530, and the bill at 36% is about €2,712.
Under the 2028 rules the fiction disappears. Jeroen's actual return, €1,500 interest plus €9,000 investment gain minus €400 loan interest: is €10,100. Subtract the new €1,800 tax-free return and he pays 36% of €8,300: €2,988.
In this average year the two systems land within €300 of each other. That is by design. The forfait percentages are calibrated to long-run averages. The gap appears the moment your year is not average.
Keep Jeroen's portfolio fixed and only change how the markets behave. In a lean year his real return is €2,000. The 2026 system does not care: still €2,712, unless he files rebuttal evidence. The 2028 system charges 36% of (€2,000 − €1,800), €72.
Now a boom year: €25,000 of real gains, most of it unsold paper profit on his ETFs. The 2026 bill is unchanged at €2,712 because the forfait caps out at 6.00%. The 2028 bill is 36% of €23,200, €8,352: payable in cash even though he sold nothing.
That is the trade in one picture. The 2028 system removes the injustice at the bottom and sends the bill to the top. If your portfolio is volatile, expect your Box 3 tax to become volatile with it, and plan liquidity for the years your screen is green.
Look inside Jeroen's €10,280 of positive deemed return: €1,280 comes from €100,000 of savings, €9,000 from €150,000 of investments. Investments are 60% of his assets but drive 88% of the taxed return, because the 6.00% forfait is nearly five times the 1.28% savings rate.
This is why the current system quietly punishes anyone the Belastingdienst classifies as an 'investor': including holders of a second home or crypto that went nowhere. It is also why the Hoge Raad intervened twice: the 2021 Kerstarrest ruled that taxing fictional returns breaches the European Convention's property protections, and the June 2024 ruling forced the rebuttal scheme that now lets you prove a lower real return for 2025-2027.
Until 2028 arrives, the practical move is simple: check every year whether your real return is below the deemed one. If it is, the tegenbewijsregeling exists precisely for you: use the opgaaf werkelijk rendement form and pay tax on reality instead of fiction.
For the portfolio in the simulator (€100,000 savings, €150,000 invested, €10,000 debt), the 2026 system charges about €2,712 while the 2028 rules on the same actual returns would charge about €2,988: nearly identical. The systems only diverge when your real return strays from the forfait: earn 12% and 2028 costs you roughly triple; lose money and 2028 drops to zero automatically while 2026 makes you prove it. Since you cannot choose between them, 2028 arrives for everyone. The real question is what to do before the switch: investors sitting on large unrealized gains should price in annual taxation of paper gains from 1 January 2028.
Investors who consistently beat 6% and want zero administration: enjoy it while it lasts.
Savers with modest real returns, anyone holding Box 3 debt, and investors tired of paying tax on returns they never earned.
The rules and figures on this page are researched from official primary sources:
