The latest government figures change the one-in-three story
Germany’s proposed Wohngeld reform is still a draft law, but the government has now published a more precise estimate of its household effects. In a 21 August 2026 response to parliament, it says that when the planned changes are fully reflected in 2029, about 238,000 households lose legal entitlement to Wohngeld entirely. That is a different claim from the early press shorthand that roughly 400,000 households would “lose housing support” from January 2027.
The same response says about 68,000 households move to SGB II basic support and 75,000 move to SGB XII support, a combined 143,000 projected switches. Those households leave the Wohngeld roll but enter another support system, so they cannot be added to the 238,000 and described as people who get no benefit at all. Adding 238,000 and 143,000 gives 381,000 potential Wohngeld-roll exits under the model, which helps explain the old round 400,000 figure. It does not mean 381,000 households become unsupported. The government also estimates about one million remain on Wohngeld at a reduced level by 2029. The Bundestag summary reports the 238,000 and one-million figures.
Modelled Wohngeld household routes at full effect in 2029
These are projections from a microsimulation, not individual eligibility decisions. They assume future wages, pensions, rents and basic-support rates. They also describe the draft as currently written; parliament has not enacted it. A household’s actual benefit depends on its own income, rent, size, rent level and other legal conditions.
What the cabinet draft proposes
The government’s cabinet overview and a Bundestag summary of the government bill describe three financial changes. The scheduled adjustment of Wohngeld to rent and price changes on 1 January 2027 would be suspended once. The permanent heating-cost component would be halved. The Wohngeld formula would be adjusted so fewer households and lower amounts qualify. The draft also contains administrative changes intended to simplify applications and reviews.
No single fixed euro cut applies to all recipients. The government says it modelled the combined effects of these reform elements and did not separately quantify an average monthly loss from each one. The elements interact, which is why subtracting a headline amount from your current award is not a defensible personal estimate. Someone near the income threshold could lose eligibility, while another household remains eligible for a smaller payment.
The draft’s fiscal path also develops over time. The parliamentary response cites planned Wohngeld savings for each of the federal and state sides of €738 million in 2027, €1.018 billion in 2028, and €1.08 billion annually from 2029. That means total federal-plus-state savings of about €1.476 billion, €2.036 billion and €2.16 billion in those years, if enacted as modelled. These are budget projections, not cash withheld from a particular household.
Projected Wohngeld budget savings if the draft passes
The government’s answer also discusses additional SGB II and XII spending as some households change support systems. Those expenses help explain why a reduction in the Wohngeld budget is not identical to an equal reduction in all public housing and living-cost support. A reader evaluating the impact should distinguish the Wohngeld account from the broader safety-net outcome.
Who are the 238,000?
The official answer defines the 238,000 as households that would lose their Wohngeld claim completely by the draft’s full effect in 2029. It explicitly excludes households that retain a theoretical Wohngeld claim but would be better off switching to basic support. This matters because an early “one in three lose everything” headline blends two routes with very different consequences.
The answer does not provide a personal list or an income threshold that lets you identify your household from these totals alone. It says the reform is designed to affect households near the upper income edge of Wohngeld eligibility more than households with very low incomes. But local rent levels and household circumstances matter. The model’s 238,000 figure should prompt a budget review, not a conclusion that your payment will cease.
For those projected to switch, SGB II and SGB XII have different eligibility and administration from Wohngeld. The government’s figures estimate 68,000 SGB II switches and 75,000 SGB XII switches in 2029. The latter are modelled as pensioner households in the response; the former include several household types. A transfer may change application duties and how housing costs are handled. It should not be portrayed as an uncomplicated continuation of the same benefit.
When could your current award change?
The cabinet proposal aims to start on 1 January 2027, subject to the legislative process. Existing Wohngeld approval notices remain valid through their stated term under the draft. That means the calendar alone should not end a valid current notice at midnight on New Year’s Day. The amount and eligibility are normally reconsidered when the notice expires and a new decision is made, subject to the rules actually enacted and any changes in your circumstances.
Check the end date on your Bewilligungsbescheid. Keep the documents used for your last application and record rent, income and household changes. Apply for renewal in time. If your household budget depends on the current Wohngeld payment, look at the effect of a smaller award and ask the local Wohngeld office which facts would affect a renewal. If you may instead qualify for SGB II or XII, seek advice about that application route before assuming you will automatically be transferred. The official government overview remains the best place to check whether the draft advances or changes.
Why the earlier number was misleading
Early coverage, including the tagesschau background explainer, reported a rough one-third fall in Wohngeld households and a budget shift from roughly €5 billion to €3 billion. Those statements described the policy debate before the government supplied the more detailed August model. The older round number can approximately represent departures from the Wohngeld roll by full effect, but it should not be used as the count of households with no remaining benefit entitlement.
The government’s current breakdown gives three distinct questions: Will the household retain Wohngeld, move to basic support, or lose Wohngeld entitlement without that modelled switch? The figures are one million remaining with a reduced level, 143,000 moving to other support, and 238,000 losing Wohngeld eligibility outright. Since different baseline periods and rounded model totals are involved, do not force these numbers into a precise percentage of today’s caseload. The proposal may still change in parliament, so every number remains a modelled outcome rather than a final entitlement count.
For other German retirement and tax changes that may affect a household budget, see the Aktivrente calculator and the KVdR versus PKV comparison. They do not calculate Wohngeld eligibility; use the local authority’s process for that decision.
